Predictions: Not for the Faint of Heart

With constant change, upheaval and churn all around us, we yearn to know that we might predict our way to a future that seems calmer and clearer. Any new year brings resolutions for improvement and very quickly resolutions morph into predictions as to how things might look. Predictability is super seductive at these times, providing that much longed for sense that we have our bearings, know pretty well what is going on around us and can leverage those insights to plot out a trajectory to our future. As 2025 gave way to the early days of 2026, however, many of SmarterWisdom’s clients are not feeling as if they possess the prerequisites to do so. As a result, many don’t feel confident predicting a future based on their own insights.

The traditional equation of personal awareness + human desire for control=reasonable predictions of future scenarios has been disrupted.  The critical element of self-trust in personal awareness is now missing. What has not ceased---and, in fact, has gotten stronger---is a constant drumbeat of confusion sending tremors of vibration through most all of the dimensions of the contexts in which we exist. We see cracks in the walls, or things falling off shelves and breaking.  And yet, the next day, we are told that the earthquake didn’t happen. In pursuit of control, we find the lure of prediction difficult to resist: we are quick to seek answers from experts. Desperate for some semblance of order, we move quickly with the new ideas we have digested.

One of our most popular Words of Wisdom in 2025 was about transforming ideas to organizational value [Be the Change, August].  In a time of upheaval, how do you choose the right ideas; today’s context has added new stress to making these kinds of choices.

Many motivated, hard-working employees are still eager to make good decisions and pursue the best strategies for their organizations. But in our coaching, we are picking up a new hesitancy, particularly in mid-level employees, around taking independent action. They tell us they want more direction, their boss’s approval, and other cues that they won’t be mis-stepping.

At the same time, their managers have noticed the impact: During managers’ coaching conversations, leaders observe that employees aren’t “taking the ball and running with it” as they used to. Several have noted that some of their previously-assessed best employees seem to be losing their motivation or underperforming. In fact, these leaders are observing a real behavioral shift but misidentifying the source of the problem. The behavior they are seeing is not disengagement or even individual employee-based insecurity; it is a context-driven hesitancy spawned by employees losing faith in their own judgement. Akin to the idea of learned helplessness: this is learned hesitancy.

Losing one’s perspective on what will benefit the organization in the future is a major blow, particularly for low to mid-level managers. This cohort is painfully aware that they are supposed to shift from tactical thinking to strategic thinking in order to succeed in their pursuit of higher-level executive positions. But success at thinking strategically relies tremendously on one’s ability to generate an integrated vision for the future with only the data available in the present. Predicting the future is a challenge under the most stable of circumstances. But employees experience their current context as being interpreted differently on an almost daily basis as a matter of course: definitions are constantly shifting; priorities turn on a dime and areas of focus swing radically. As a result, the circumstances which would normally drive key strategic decisions feel slippery and highly unreliable.

For the anxious employees, this is a tricky situation. It is especially so if you have a boss who believes that it is your job to set your own GPS at work. We have seen this approach in action for years at the highest organizational levels in many of our client companies and organizations. For example, the COO of a very successful pension fund believes each member of her team is responsible for figuring out what needs to be done in her area and how to do it: during our consultation she was frustrated at their failure to do so, saying that that is part of her definition of an executive role. But in recent years, she had hired quite a number of relatively junior people in an effort to both promote from within and to diversify her team.  When the world was looking relatively similar from year to year, that may have meant that the new roles were stretch assignments--challenging to be sure but, for many, doable.  But in a period where the sands are constantly blowing and shifting, inexperienced employees may not recognize the terrain in which they find themselves. How can organizations strengthen employees’ belief in their ability to make good calls?

New dilemmas call for new solutions. And the enhanced uncertainty that prompts employees to look to their leaders for a thought partner is neither a character flaw nor a performance problem. Leaders need to step up to the increasing pressure to make the call when employees fear their point of view may be insufficient. It isn’t that they are saying their leaders are smarter than they are: they are recognizing that “what you see depends on where you sit.” The view from a higher rung on the ladder may be enriched with both information and perspectives not visible from a lower perch.  

We observe that leaders are equally anxious, and that that likely plays a part in their reluctance to give direction. Unjamming this organizational dilemma may best be addressed through helping leaders to reconsider their roles and job descriptions to reflect this shift. SmarterWisdom sincerely believes that leading effectively in the face of employee bewilderment (and the resultant sense of inadequacy and anxiety that it prompts) can greatly benefit organizational and individual outcomes.

Organizations must encourage leaders to think differently.  They need a strategy to reset leaders’ understanding of uncertainty as a demonstration of inadequacy: that attitude encourages employees to feel alone with their concerns and to conceal them. What it doesn’t do, however, is to provide employees with mechanisms for problem solving, so the symptomatic behaviors—failure to take action, explore possibilities or take risks—remain.

Leaders know that tackling insecurity in employees head-on, one by one, is a steep climb. Many feel ill-equipped to play that role, and shy away from it. Their concern is not unfounded: Leaders are not trained therapists and telling people not to be fearful rarely makes them unafraid. But SmarterWisdom has had good results with an approach that provides a low-risk strategy for leaders to take the isolation out of employee anxiety and get employees feeling supported and strengthened. Leaders who take this stance come at this sensitive issue in a gentler, tangential way that doesn’t raise their own anxiety level or evoke a sense of fault or inadequacy among employees. The key is for the leader to create mechanisms for employees to undertake activities that validate and normalize uncertainty and address the need to think together to succeed.

By assuming a stance that we are all feeling as if our ability to see the future has been eroded and providing a prediction structure by which employees and leaders can benefit from sharing the burden and opportunity of predicting in a churning environment, information, perspectives and expertise can be shared. Rather than framing seeking information from many sources as a lack of capability or confidence, it points to the root of the problem being the context in which we all work today and a mechanism for dealing with it. 

Organizations need to be direct with their leaders about how they---and the cultural norms they promote--- must change to be effective in 2026. Leaders need to do the same with employees. Here are a few working basics to help leaders and employees in this strange new context:

Employees

·      Successful strategies are based on good predictions, and good predictions are like quantum physics---they can see the future while existing in the present. You won’t be expected to make the best predictions/decisions solo: you are expected to use all resources at your disposal to envision the future.

·      Scan sooner, rather than later, to identify your selected resources for advice and counsel before you need to tap them.

Leaders

·      Replace the “never bring me a problem without a solution” mantra in managing your teams. Demonstrate that you include yourself in the problem-solving resource pool.

·      Flip your metaphor: Rather than valuing subordinates solving all issues by themselves, be clear that you are operating on the principle that, in today’s world, we will do better with an all hands- and heads-on-deck approach.

·      Acknowledge your shift away from the old rules in light of extraordinary circumstances: When employees are suddenly seeing the terrain in which they are working reflected in a funhouse mirror, we do not want people to use just the singular periscope through which they view their world to make critical assessments. Consultative, collective thinking will support individuals and strengthen teams in today’s world.

·      Be articulate about your perspective-in-operation on prediction: Go public with your stance that the wisdom of teams offers a broader and deeper pool from which to set strategic direction and make significant investments. Explain the benefits of a multiplicity of viewpoints in revealing trends of thought as well as providing a multidimensional net to vet options.

Employees and Leaders Alike

Leaders will still welcome employees coming to them with ideas and having a point of view on significant decisions, but employees who have arrived at them in a vacuum will not get bonus points. It is every employee’s responsibility to find trusted sources to support them in determining “best available” strategic predictions relevant to the challenges they face. In the world today, and for the near future, at least, employees’ success will rely on their ability to develop and cull visions of the future they are willing to stand behind. And leaders’ success will be assessed by how well they develop their team members’ ability to make good calls while paddling in the churn of white water.  

 

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                          

 

 

 

 


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